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U.S. GDP Game Plan: EUR/USD Rebound Looks to Data for Fuel

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Euro is trading within a bullish near-term technical formation ahead of key U.S. data. Here are the updated targets & invalidation levels that matter into the releases.

Talking Points

  • EUR/USD trading within ascending technical formation- ahead of U.S. GDP
  • Updated targets & invalidation levels
  • Compete to Win Cash Prizes with FXCM’s Forex Trading Contest

EURUSD 60min

U.S. GDP Game Plan: EUR/USD Rebound Looks to Data for Fuel

Chart Created Using TradingView

Technical Outlook: EURUSD broke above the weekly opening-range high yesterday with the rally reversing just ahead of confluence resistance in early London trade. A newly identified median-line formation off the lows has continued to offer guidance with the exchange rate approaching a near-term support confluence at 1.1060. Heading into tomorrow’s U.S. 2Q GDP release, the pair remains constructive while above the lower parallel / 61.8% retracement at 1.1016 with the broader bullish invalidation level set to the weekly open at 1.0970.

Confluence resistance is eyed at 1.1106/10– a region defined by the monthly open, the 38.2% retracement & slope resistances. A breach above this zone is needed to validate the next leg higher for the euro with such a scenario eyeing subsequent topside objectives at 1.1123, the upper median-line parallel & the 50% retracement at 1.1170.

From a trading standpoint, heading into the GDP release I would be looking to fade USD strength (EURUSD weakness) into structural support. For the complete setup and to continue tracking this trade and more throughout the week- Subscribe to SB Trade Deskand take advantage of the DailyFX New Subscriber Discount.

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U.S. GDP Game Plan: EUR/USD Rebound Looks to Data for Fuel

  • A summary of the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI)shows traders are net short EURUSD- the ratio stands at -1.34(43% of traders are long)bullishreading
  • Yesterday the ratio was +1.02. Short positions are 15.1% higher than yesterday and 21.9% above levels seen last week.
  • Open interest is 0.5% lower than yesterday and 4.5% above its monthly average.
  • SSI flipped to net short yesterday as price defended the weekly open as support at 1.0970 with the subsequent breach of the weekly-range keeping the long-bias in play heading into tomorrow’s key U.S. event risk.

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Relevant Data Releases This Week

U.S. GDP Game Plan: EUR/USD Rebound Looks to Data for Fuel

Other Setups in Play:

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—Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

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U.S. GDP Game Plan: EUR/USD Rebound Looks to Data for Fuel