National Year-over-Year (YoY) HPA in August was 4.5% and is expected to continue rising through October 2023 and beyond

WASHINGTON, Sept. 26, 2023 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — National constant-quality home prices in August 2023 were down 0.1% from a month ago and up 4.5% from a year ago (not seasonally adjusted), according to data from the American Enterprise Institute’s (AEI) Housing Center. Despite subdued demand and historically high rates, Year-over-Year (YoY) HPA bottomed out in April 2023 and is expected to continue rising through October 2023 and beyond.

YoY HPA varied significantly among the 60 largest metros (see #1 in graphic). It ranged from -5.5% in Austin (-9.2% inflation-adjusted) to 11.3% in Kansas City (+7.6% inflation-adjusted).

Home prices have increased in all of the top 60 metros since their respective recent troughs in either December 2022 or January 2023 (see #2 in graphic). Metros in the Midwest, which continue to be relatively affordable, lead the recovery.

Historically, low price tier HPA has outpaced HPA for the upper price tiers. This trend continued in August, with YoY HPA up 6.6% and 4.4% for the low price tier and high price tier, respectively.

Months’ supply stood at 3.1 months in August 2023, down from 3.6 months in July 2023 and 3.3 months in August 2019 (pre-pandemic). (See #3 in graphic). Low levels of supply continue to signal a strong seller’s market. The months’ supply for the low price tier came in at 2.1 months in August 2023, helping to explain the 6.6% YoY price growth for this tier.

The AEI Housing Center provides the most advanced and timely information on home prices available. Measures of home price appreciation like the Case Shiller index have months of lag. The Housing Center has published data for August 2023 and is able to accurately project September and October with Optimal Blue rate lock data as well.

National Home Price Appreciation (HPA) Index – August 2023

Sissi Li
American Enterprise Institute Housing Center
Washington, DC
https://www.aei.org/centers/housing-center/
Sissi.Li@aei.org
203-419-5240

A photo accompanying this announcement is available at https://www.globenewswire.com/NewsRoom/AttachmentNg/64f8db87-41db-4eea-a630-d085df1d7e07