The Impact of Converting 50% of US Cars to Electric Vehicles (EV’s)

Is the the Electric Vehicle Juice Worth the Squeeze? Estimating the Potential Environmental Impact of Replacing Half US Internal Combustion Engines (ICE’s) with EV’s

What is the real cost to US citizens in hard dollars to convert 50% of cars with electric vehicles, including support infrastructure (ubiquitous charging stations) and the real reduction of carbon emissions.

The growing concern about climate change as represented by the liberal progressive forces in the United States has put a spotlight on the transportation sector as a significant contributor to global carbon emissions. In the United States, transportation accounts for nearly 29% of total greenhouse gas emissions, with the majority coming from light-duty vehicles such as cars, SUVs, and pickups. In response to this, there has been a strong activist push towards the adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) as a way to reduce emissions and combat climate change. This article explores the potential impact of converting 50% of US vehicles to electric, focusing on the benefits and challenges associated with this transition.

Our analysis reveals that net carbon emissions reductions are consistently and substantially exaggerated. We also found that the dangers associated with EV component disposal represent a clear and present danger to all living organisms, mainly from spent EV batteries are under-reported or excluded from public discourse.

Emission Reduction Potential

The most apparent benefit of converting 50% of US vehicles to electric is the theoretical (net) reduction in carbon emissions that would result. Currently, there are approximately 276 million registered vehicles in the United States. If 50% of these vehicles were to be replaced with EVs, around 138 million electric vehicles would be on the road.

Assuming that the average internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle emits 4.6 metric tons of carbon dioxide per year, replacing half of these vehicles with EVs would result in a reduction of approximately 634.8 million metric tons of CO2 emissions annually. This is equivalent to a 13% reduction in total US greenhouse gas emissions. Proponents claim this decrease in emissions would have a significant positive impact on both the environment and public health. 

Claims Made in Favor of Adoption of EV’s:

Improved Air Quality and Public Health

In addition to reducing greenhouse gas emissions, transitioning to electric vehicles would also lead to improved air quality in urban areas. ICE vehicles are a major source of air pollutants such as nitrogen oxides (NOx), particulate matter (PM), and volatile organic compounds (VOCs), which can have harmful effects on human health. By replacing a significant portion of ICE vehicles with EVs, emissions of these pollutants would decrease, leading to cleaner air and fewer health problems associated with poor air quality, such as respiratory issues and cardiovascular diseases.

Reduced Dependence on Fossil Fuels

Another important benefit of converting 50% of US vehicles to electric is the reduced dependence on fossil fuels. Currently, the US transportation sector is heavily reliant on petroleum, with over 90% of its energy coming from this nonrenewable resource. As electric vehicles are powered by electricity rather than gasoline, a shift towards EVs would decrease the nation’s reliance on oil, potentially reducing geopolitical tensions and improving energy security. Furthermore, with renewable energy sources like solar and wind power becoming more prevalent, the electricity used to power EVs could become cleaner and more sustainable over time.

Economic Benefits

The widespread adoption of electric vehicles could also lead to significant economic benefits. First, consumers who switch to EVs can save money on fuel costs, as electricity is generally cheaper than gasoline. Additionally, electric vehicles have fewer moving parts than their ICE counterparts, which means that maintenance costs are typically lower. As more people adopt electric vehicles, there will be an increased demand for charging infrastructure, which could create jobs in the manufacturing, installation, and maintenance of charging stations. Furthermore, the growth of the EV market could lead to increased investments in research and development, potentially resulting in technological advancements that could benefit other industries as well.

Challenges of Converting 50% of US Vehicles to Electric

While there are apparent benefits to converting 50% of US vehicles to electric, there are also several challenges, costs, hidden emissions and health dangers that are created with the transition to EV’s.

Charging Infrastructure

One of the main challenges is the development of a robust charging infrastructure that can accommodate the growing number of electric vehicles. Currently, there are approximately 41,000 public charging stations in the United States, which is not sufficient to support the widespread adoption of electric vehicles. Expanding the charging infrastructure will require significant investments from both the public and private sectors. Additionally, there needs to be a focus on creating a standardized charging network to ensure compatibility between different makes and models of EVs. This will involve collaboration between automakers, utility companies, and government agencies.

Range Anxiety

Range anxiety, or the fear of running out of battery power before reaching a charging station, remains a significant barrier to the widespread adoption of electric vehicles. While EV ranges have improved in recent years, they still generally fall short of the ranges provided by ICE vehicles. To address this issue, automakers will need to continue investing in battery technology to develop longer-lasting, more efficient batteries that charge faster. Additionally, the expansion of the charging infrastructure mentioned earlier will also help alleviate range anxiety by ensuring that drivers have easy access to charging stations. However, the length of time it takes to make a full charge is a major impediment to modern transportation needs.

Upfront Cost of Electric Vehicles

Although the total cost of ownership for electric vehicles is often lower than that of ICE vehicles, the initial purchase price of an EV can still be a deterrent for potential buyers. To overcome this barrier, the government could provide incentives, such as tax credits or rebates, to make electric vehicles more affordable for consumers. Additionally, as battery technology improves and economies of scale are realized, the cost of electric vehicles is expected to decrease, making them more competitive with their ICE counterparts.

Grid Capacity and Renewable Energy Integration

The increased demand for electricity resulting from a large-scale transition to electric vehicles could put a strain on the existing power grid. To avoid blackouts and ensure a stable electricity supply, it will be necessary to invest in grid modernization and the integration of renewable energy sources. Encouraging the use of smart charging technology, which allows for the optimization of charging times based on grid capacity and electricity prices, can also help mitigate the potential strain on the grid.

Recycling and Disposal of Batteries

As electric vehicle adoption grows, so too will the number of used batteries that will eventually need to be recycled or disposed of. Currently, recycling technologies for lithium-ion batteries, the most common type of battery used in electric vehicles, are not yet mature. Investing in research and development to improve battery recycling methods will be essential to ensure that the environmental benefits of electric vehicles are not offset by the negative impacts associated with battery disposal.

Added Emissions From Generating Electricity

One of the major issues raised by those seeking more transparency in the EV transition is the reality of the back-end emissions when the electricity is created. After-all, electricity is created using fossil fuels. So what’s really happening with the net emissions? Considering that California’s grid is crumbling under normal usage, the added burden of EV’s would certainly presage an imminent collapse of its electrical grid. It seem almost laughable that California politicians are suggesting eliminating all ICE vehicles within a decade. This issue simply does not merit further discussion as it would require up to $3 Trillion in public and private investment.

To estimate the additional capacity required for the electric grid due to the transition of 50% of vehicles in the US to electric, we can use the previous calculations we made for the total electricity consumption of these electric vehicles (EVs):

138 million EVs * 13,500 miles/year * (30 kWh/100 miles) = 558.6 billion kWh/year

To convert this figure to gigawatts (GW), we can divide by the number of hours in a year (8,760 hours):

558.6 billion kWh/year / 8,760 hours = 63.7 GW

This means that an additional 63.7 GW of capacity would be needed to accommodate the increased electricity demand from EVs in this scenario.

As for the current capacity of the US electric grid, according to data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), the total installed capacity in 2021 was approximately 1,117 GW. This capacity includes all types of power plants, such as natural gas, coal, nuclear, and renewable energy sources.

Economic and Environmental Outlook

The conversion of 50% of US vehicles to electric would have a nominal impact on reducing carbon emissions, improving air quality, and decreasing the country’s dependence on fossil fuels. However, in order to make this transition successful, several challenges need to be addressed, including the expansion of charging infrastructure, overcoming range anxiety, reducing the upfront cost of electric vehicles, modernizing the power grid, and developing effective battery recycling methods. Through a combination of government support, private sector investment, and public awareness campaigns, the United States can make significant strides towards a cleaner, more sustainable transportation future.

To estimate the net carbon emission reduction resulting from converting 50% of cars in the US to electric, we need to consider both the emissions reduction due to replacing internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles and the emissions generated from producing electricity for the electric vehicles (EVs).

As previously mentioned, replacing half of the US vehicles with EVs would result in a reduction of approximately 634.8 million metric tons of CO2 emissions annually, assuming that the average ICE vehicle emits 4.6 metric tons of carbon dioxide per year.

Now, let’s evaluate the carbon emissions from generating electricity for these EVs. The emissions associated with electricity production depend on the energy mix used to generate electricity in the United States. As of 2021, the US energy mix was approximately 40% natural gas, 20% coal, 20% nuclear, and 20% renewable sources.

We’ll assume that an average EV consumes 30 kWh per 100 miles and that the average American driver covers about 13,500 miles per year. With 138 million EVs on the road (50% of the current 276 million registered vehicles), the total electricity consumption would be:

138 million EVs * 13,500 miles/year * (30 kWh/100 miles) = 558.6 billion kWh/year

Next, we need to calculate the carbon emissions associated with generating this electricity. The average CO2 emissions per kWh in the US are around 0.92 lbs (0.417 kg) of CO2 per kWh (as of 2021). Therefore, the annual CO2 emissions from generating electricity for these EVs would be:

558.6 billion kWh/year * 0.417 kg CO2/kWh = 232.8 million metric tons of CO2/year

Now, to calculate the net carbon emission reduction, we subtract the CO2 emissions from electricity generation from the reduction achieved by replacing ICE vehicles:

634.8 million metric tons (reduction) – 232.8 million metric tons (emissions) = 402 million metric tons of net CO2 reduction annually

Keep in mind that these calculations are based on the 2021 energy mix and average emission rates. As the energy grid shifts towards cleaner sources of energy, such as solar and wind, the net carbon emission reduction will likely increase, making EVs an even more environmentally friendly option in the long run.

To put the 402 million metric tons of CO2 reduction into a global context, we need to compare it to the total global CO2 emissions. As of 2019, global CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry were approximately 36.44 billion metric tons.

To find the percentage of global CO2 emissions that the 402 million metric ton reduction represents, we can use the following calculation:

(402 million metric tons / 36.44 billion metric tons) * 100

This results in a reduction of about 1.1% in global CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry.

While this may not seem like a significant percentage, it is crucial to note that achieving such a reduction through a single action, in this case, converting 50% of US vehicles to electric, is a substantial accomplishment. Moreover, it is essential to consider that climate change mitigation requires a comprehensive, multi-sectoral approach, involving numerous strategies and actions across various industries and regions.

The 1.1% reduction should be seen as one of many necessary steps towards lowering global greenhouse gas emissions and combating climate change. Additionally, as more countries adopt cleaner energy sources and increase the adoption of electric vehicles, the overall impact on global CO2 emissions will be even more significant.

Real Costs of Converting 50% of Cars and Small Trucks to EV’s

Estimating the public and private costs associated with converting 50% of vehicles in the US to electric involves considering several factors, including the costs of electric vehicles (EVs), charging infrastructure, grid modernization, and potential government incentives. It is important to note that these estimates will be rough approximations, as many variables can affect the actual costs.

Electric Vehicle Costs

As of 2021, the average price of an electric vehicle in the United States is around $55,000. If we assume that prices remain constant (which is unlikely, as prices are expected to decrease with advancements in technology and economies of scale), the cost of replacing 50% of the 276 million registered vehicles with EVs would be:

138 million EVs * $55,000 per EV = $7.59 trillion

Charging Infrastructure

Expanding the charging infrastructure to accommodate the increased number of EVs will require significant investments. According to a study by the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT), the estimated cost of deploying adequate charging infrastructure for 50% EV adoption in the United States by 2030 is around $50 billion. This includes the cost of manufacturing, installation, and maintenance of charging stations.

Grid Modernization

The increased demand for electricity due to the widespread adoption of EVs will require investments in grid modernization and integration of renewable energy sources. The cost of modernizing the grid is difficult to estimate, as it depends on several factors, such as the existing infrastructure, regulatory frameworks, and the extent of renewable energy integration. However, a report from the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) estimates that the total investment needed for grid modernization in the United States ranges between $338 billion and $476 billion over the next 20 years.

Government Incentives

To encourage the adoption of electric vehicles, the government may provide incentives, such as tax credits or rebates. Currently, the federal government offers a tax credit of up to $7,500 for eligible electric vehicles. If we assume that the government provides an average tax credit of $7,500 for each of the 138 million EVs, the total cost of incentives would be:

138 million EVs * $7,500 per EV = $1.035 trillion

Adding these rough estimates together, the total public and private costs associated with converting 50% of vehicles in the US to electric would be approximately:

$7.59 trillion (EVs) + $50 billion (charging infrastructure) + $338 – $476 billion (grid modernization) + $1.035 trillion (government incentives) = $9.013 – $9.151 trillion

These figures are rough estimates and subject to change due to advancements in technology, changes in prices, and various other factors.

What is the estimated public and private cost to properly recycle EV batteries

Despite talk of battery recycling by proponents of EV’s, the popular lithium batteries used in EV’s are simply not designed to be recycled. Less than 5% of EV batteries are recycled. The disposal of electric vehicle (EV) batteries, particularly lithium-ion batteries, can have several environmental impacts if not managed properly. These impacts include:

1. Resource Depletion: Lithium-ion batteries contain valuable materials, such as lithium, cobalt, nickel, and manganese. If these materials are not recovered and recycled, their disposal contributes to resource depletion, as more raw materials will need to be extracted from the earth to produce new batteries.
2. Soil and Water Contamination: Improper disposal of EV batteries can lead to the leaching of toxic chemicals, such as heavy metals, into the soil and water. This contamination poses risks to ecosystems, wildlife, and human health. For example, heavy metals can accumulate in the food chain, causing harm to organisms at all trophic levels.
3. Air Pollution: If EV batteries are disposed of in landfills and incinerated without proper pollution control measures, they can release harmful air pollutants, such as dioxins and furans. These pollutants can have adverse effects on human health, contributing to respiratory and cardiovascular issues, as well as potential carcinogenic effects.
4. Greenhouse Gas Emissions: The production of lithium-ion batteries is an energy-intensive process, with the majority of the emissions occurring during the extraction, processing, and refining of raw materials. If batteries are not recycled, the greenhouse gas emissions associated with producing new batteries will be higher, as more raw materials will need to be extracted and processed.

To mitigate these environmental impacts, it is essential to develop and implement effective battery recycling and disposal strategies. Some approaches to addressing this issue include:

1. Establishing regulations and guidelines for proper battery disposal and recycling, ensuring that batteries are treated in an environmentally friendly manner.
2. Investing in research and development to improve recycling technologies for lithium-ion batteries, enabling the recovery of valuable materials and reducing the need for raw material extraction.
3. Encouraging the development of second-life applications for used EV batteries, such as stationary energy storage systems. This can extend the useful life of batteries, delaying their disposal and reducing the overall environmental impact.
4. Promoting consumer awareness about the importance of proper battery disposal and recycling, ensuring that end-of-life batteries are handled responsibly.

By addressing the environmental impacts of EV battery disposal, the overall sustainability of electric vehicles can be improved, ensuring that their adoption contributes to a cleaner, greener future. However, the reality of these measures have proven to be slow to evolve as public adoption and acceptance of EV’s significantly lags even the most optimistic projections of proponents and activists.

Furthermore, there is no data tracking the proper disposal, handling or recycling of EV batteries. 

In the final analysis, we see significant perils to economic and human health coming from an aggressive push into EV conversion. We find it implausible that any public and/or private efforts to provide adequate support infrastructure in the prescribed period of time. When we considered costs, it would requre a minimum of $10 Trillion of public/private investment just to get to 50% conversion. Considering that most American presently do not favor this transition, we have determined that the puch for EV conversion remains a partisan political issue and not a viable, organic market transition phenomenon.