Edmunds analysts forecast a slower SAAR of 15.0M for June and say that consumers likely accelerated purchases earlier in the quarter to get ahead of tariff concerns
Santa Monica, Calif., June 26, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — The car shopping experts from Edmunds forecast that 4,180,214 new cars and trucks will be sold in the U.S. in the second quarter of 2025, which will be a 2.0% increase from the second quarter of 2024 and a 6.1% increase compared to the first quarter of 2025.
“Much of the sales strength we’re seeing in the second quarter stems from a strong April and May, when consumers likely pulled forward purchases to get ahead of potential tariff hikes,” said Ivan Drury, Edmunds’ director of insights. “There seemed to be a sense of urgency among shoppers worried that prices would rise immediately — but inventory levels remained steady throughout the quarter, helping to shield prices from immediate effects. June is shaping up to be softer as a result of that pull-ahead, and with July 4 sales on the horizon, some demand may have shifted to next month.”
Drury notes that the ripple effects of tariffs may become more apparent as 2026 model year vehicles begin arriving at dealerships. According to Edmunds’ new-vehicle inventory data from mid-June, these newer models currently account for nearly one in 20 vehicles on dealer lots nationwide.
“Affordability remains a major challenge for many car shoppers,” said Joseph Yoon, Edmunds’ consumer insights analyst. “With the Fed holding rates steady and tariffs a continued reality, buyers shouldn’t expect relief anytime soon. If you’re shopping now, it’s important to stay flexible and do your research: Compare financing offers, and factor in the trade-in value of your current vehicle, which could be a key bargaining chip toward your next purchase.”
Yoon also advises that consumers should keep an eye on 2025 models during the summer selldown period.
“As more 2026 models start to show up on dealer lots, shoppers should consider filtering their searches on sites like Edmunds to focus on remaining 2025 inventory,” said Yoon. “This is often where the better values are, especially if the newer models are simply design carryovers with a higher post-tariff price tag. Being strategic about timing in this market can make a real difference in what you end up paying.”
SALES VOLUME FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER
| SALES VOLUME | 2025 Q2 Forecast | 2024 Q2 Sales | 2025 Q1 Sales | Change from 2024 Q2 | Change from 2025 Q1 |
| GM | 742,013 | 696,493 | 693,466 | 6.5% | 7.0% |
| Toyota | 673,578 | 623,072 | 570,717 | 8.1% | 18.0% |
| Stellantis | 301,997 | 346,382 | 294,270 | -12.8% | 2.6% |
| Ford | 610,485 | 536,050 | 501,301 | 13.9% | 21.8% |
| Honda | 385,199 | 356,457 | 351,577 | 8.1% | 9.6% |
| Hyundai/Kia | 470,405 | 440,165 | 420,205 | 6.9% | 11.9% |
| Nissan | 214,732 | 236,721 | 267,220 | -9.3% | -19.6% |
| Industry | 4,180,214 | 4,096,779 | 3,941,029 | 2.0% | 6.1% |
MARKET SHARE FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER
| Market Share | 2025 Q2 Forecast | 2024 Q2 Sales | 2025 Q1 Sales | Change from 2024 Q2 | Change from 2025 Q1 |
| GM | 17.8% | 17.0% | 17.6% | 4.4% | 0.9% |
| Toyota | 16.1% | 15.2% | 14.5% | 5.9% | 11.3% |
| Ford | 14.6% | 13.1% | 12.7% | 11.6% | 14.8% |
| Hyundai/Kia | 11.3% | 10.7% | 10.7% | 4.7% | 5.5% |
| Honda | 9.2% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 5.9% | 3.3% |
| Stellantis | 7.2% | 8.5% | 7.5% | -14.6% | -3.2% |
| Nissan | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.8% | -11.1% | -24.2% |
About Edmunds
Edmunds guides car shoppers online from research to purchase. With in-depth reviews of every new vehicle, shopping tips from an in-house team of experts, plus a wealth of consumer and automotive market insights, Edmunds helps millions of shoppers each month select, price and buy a car with confidence. Regarded as one of America’s best workplaces by Fortune, Great Place to Work and Built In, Edmunds is based in Santa Monica, California. Follow us on TikTok, Twitter, Facebook and Instagram.
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CONTACT: Talia James-Armand Edmunds 310-491-8738 pr@edmunds.com
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