Home / Top News / TrueCar and ALG Forecast New and Used Vehicle Sales for September 2020 and the Third Quarter

TrueCar and ALG Forecast New and Used Vehicle Sales for September 2020 and the Third Quarter

TrueCar and ALG Forecast New and Used Vehicle Sales for September 2020 and the Third Quarter

Total Sales Change, Difference Year-over-Year

Total Sales Change, Difference Year-over-Year

  • New vehicle sales continue to recover from April lows forecast as retail sales increase 27% quarter-over-quarter adjusted for selling days
  • Used vehicle sales forecast to be up year-over-year for fourth consecutive month
  • Average Transaction Prices are expected to increase 3.5% year-over-year

SANTA MONICA, Calif., Sept. 25, 2020 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — TrueCar, Inc., and its ALG, Inc. subsidiary, project total new vehicle sales will reach 1,221,092 units in September 2020, down 12% from a year ago when adjusted for the same number of selling days. This month’s seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle sales is an estimated 14.8 million units. Excluding fleet sales, TrueCar and ALG expect U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks to be 1,111,397 units, a decrease of 6% from a year ago when adjusted for the same number of selling days.

Average transaction prices (ATP) are projected to be up 3.5% or $1,223 from a year ago and up 0.4% or $156 from August 2020. TrueCar projects that U.S. revenue from new vehicle sales will reach more than $44 billion for September 2020, down 0.7% (based on a non-adjusted daily selling rate) from a year ago and down 7.1% from last month.

A photo accompanying this announcement is available at https://www.globenewswire.com/NewsRoom/AttachmentNg/101520bc-b933-4d1d-b298-054183cee4bd

“The automotive industry continues to perform better than initially expected with retail sales down just six percent compared with last year. We’re also seeing one of the best SAARs since March and used vehicles forecast to be up year-over-year for the fourth consecutive month,” said Eric Lyman, Chief Industry Analyst for ALG. “From a quarterly perspective, new vehicle retail sales are up 27% and used vehicle sales are up 26% quarter over quarter.”

“Large truck sales continue to spike as many consumers gravitate toward home improvement projects to enrich their home environment where they are also working and spending more of their leisure time,” added Lyman.

Additional Insights: (Forecast by ALG and TrueCar)

  • Total retail sales for September 2020 are expected to be down 6% from a year ago and down 4% from August 2020 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
  • Fleet sales for September 2020 are expected to be down 45% from a year and up 0.2% from August 2020 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
  • Total SAAR is expected to decrease 13% from a year ago from 17.1 million units to 14.8 million units.
  • Used vehicle sales for September 2020 are expected to reach 3.8 million, up 11% from a year ago and down 1% from August 2020.
  • The average interest rates on new vehicles are 5.7% and the average interest rates on used vehicles are 8.2%.

“Inventory levels are still low for certain popular models across brands as supply continues to play catch up from production pauses a few months ago. That being said, brands with a fresh lineup of diverse inventory of in-demand SUVs, such as Hyundai, are seeing some of the highest jumps in retail sales and average transaction prices year-over-year,” said Nick Woolard, Director of OEM Analytics at TrueCar.

“For this quarter, we are seeing certain automakers make significant increases in retail market share, which is difficult in such a competitive industry. Both Kia and Hyundai have jumped in retail share with successful launches into popular segments that are resonating with consumers,” added Woolard. “Electric vehicle maker Tesla has also made one of the biggest jumps in retail market share, thanks to its popular Model 3 and the newly released Model Y, which continue Tesla’s sales momentum.”

Quarterly Insights: (Forecast by ALG and TrueCar)

  • Total unit sales for Q3 are expected to be down 14% from last year when adjusted for the same number of selling days and up 28% from Q2 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
  • Total retail sales for Q3 are expected to be down 10% from last year when adjusted for the same number of selling days and up 27% from Q2 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.

September 2020 forecasts for the 13 largest manufacturers by volume. For additional data visit the ALG Newsroom and TrueCar Newsroom.

Total Unit Sales

Manufacturer Sep 2020 Forecast Sep 2019 Actual Aug 2020 Actual YoY % Change YoY % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)
MoM % Change MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW 26,325 31,100 25,235 -15.4 % -22.1 % 4.3 % 8.5 %
Daimler 25,031 32,002 23,966 -21.8 % -28.0 % 4.4 % 8.6 %
FCA 167,138 181,221 171,519 -7.8 % -15.1 % -2.6 % 1.3 %
Ford 180,050 173,333 184,781 3.9 % -4.4 % -2.6 % 1.3 %
GM 204,004 209,658 218,845 -2.7 % -10.5 % -6.8 % -3.1 %
Honda 106,544 113,925 135,925 -6.5 % -14.0 % -21.6 % -18.5 %
Hyundai 56,916 53,510 59,721 6.4 % -2.1 % -4.7 % -0.9 %
Kia 46,256 44,619 57,015 3.7 % -4.6 % -18.9 % -15.6 %
Nissan 73,563 101,244 73,833 -27.3 % -33.2 % -0.4 % 3.6 %
Subaru 53,375 51,659 57,885 3.3 % -4.9 % -7.8 % -4.1 %
Tesla 23,903 16,000 19,000 49.4 % 37.4 % 25.8 % 30.8 %
Toyota 164,395 169,656 190,532 -3.1 % -10.9 % -13.7 % -10.3 %
Volkswagen Group 49,174 48,679 50,275 1.0 % -7.1 % -2.2 % 1.7 %
Industry 1,221,092 1,272,583 1,319,682 -4.0 % -11.7 % -7.5 % -3.8 %

Retail Unit Sales

Manufacturer Sep 2020 Forecast Sep 2019 Actual Aug 2020 Actual YoY % Change YoY % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)
MoM % Change MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW 25,228 28,418 24,115 -11.2 % -18.3 % 4.6 % 8.8 %
Daimler 24,216 29,283 23,470 -17.3 % -23.9 % 3.2 % 7.3 %
FCA 140,147 134,697 150,584 4.0 % -4.3 % -6.9 % -3.2 %
Ford 141,951 134,406 143,294 5.6 % -2.8 % -0.9 % 3.0 %
GM 180,551 174,823 186,608 3.3 % -5.0 % -3.2 % 0.6 %
Honda 106,099 113,035 135,269 -6.1 % -13.6 % -21.6 % -18.4 %
Hyundai 49,201 43,485 57,371 13.1 % 4.1 % -14.2 % -10.8 %
Kia 45,279 40,178 55,480 12.7 % 3.7 % -18.4 % -15.1 %
Nissan 70,757 73,228 68,560 -3.4 % -11.1 % 3.2 % 7.3 %
Subaru 52,549 50,676 56,677 3.7 % -4.6 % -7.3 % -3.6 %
Tesla 23,891 16,000 18,986 49.3 % 37.4 % 25.8 % 30.9 %
Toyota 159,017 162,470 184,787 -2.1 % -10.0 % -13.9 % -10.5 %
Volkswagen Group 48,967 48,000 49,828 2.0 % -6.1 % -1.7 % 2.2 %
Industry 1,111,397 1,090,616 1,205,791 1.9 % -6.2 % -7.8 % -4.1 %

Fleet Unit Sales

Manufacturer Sep 2020 Forecast Sep 2019 Actual Aug 2020 Actual YoY % Change YoY % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)
MoM % Change MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW 1,097 2,682 1,120 -59.1 % -62.4 % -2.0 % 1.9 %
Daimler 816 2,719 496 -70.0 % -72.4 % 64.4 % 71.0 %
FCA 26,991 46,524 20,935 -42.0 % -46.6 % 28.9 % 34.1 %
Ford 38,099 38,927 41,487 -2.1 % -10.0 % -8.2 % -4.5 %
GM 23,453 34,835 32,237 -32.7 % -38.1 % -27.2 % -24.3 %
Honda 445 890 656 -50.0 % -54.0 % -32.1 % -29.4 %
Hyundai 7,716 10,025 2,350 -23.0 % -29.2 % 228.3 % 241.4 %
Kia 977 4,441 1,535 -78.0 % -79.8 % -36.4 % -33.8 %
Nissan 2,806 28,016 5,273 -90.0 % -90.8 % -46.8 % -44.7 %
Subaru 826 983 1,208 -16.0 % -22.7 % -31.6 % -28.9 %
Tesla 12 14     -15.6 % -12.2 %
Toyota 5,379 7,186 5,745 -25.1 % -31.1 % -6.4 % -2.6 %
Volkswagen Group 207 679 447 -69.6 % -72.0 % -53.7 % -51.9 %
Industry 109,694 181,967 113,891 -39.7 % -44.5 % -3.7 % 0.2 %

Fleet Penetration

Manufacturer Sep 2020 Forecast Sep 2019 Actual Aug 2020 Actual YoY % Change MoM % Change
BMW 4.2 % 8.6 % 4.4 % -51.7 % -6.1 %
Daimler 3.3 % 8.5 % 2.1 % -61.6 % 57.4 %
FCA 16.1 % 25.7 % 12.2 % -37.1 % 32.3 %
Ford 21.2 % 22.5 % 22.5 % -5.8 % -5.8 %
GM 11.5 % 16.6 % 14.7 % -30.8 % -22.0 %
Honda 0.4 % 0.8 % 0.5 % -46.5 % -13.4 %
Hyundai 13.6 % 18.7 % 3.9 % -27.6 % 244.4 %
Kia 2.1 % 10.0 % 2.7 % -78.8 % -21.6 %
Nissan 3.8 % 27.7 % 7.1 % -86.2 % -46.6 %
Subaru 1.5 % 1.9 % 2.1 % -18.7 % -25.9 %
Tesla 0.1 % 0.0 % 0.1 %   -32.9 %
Toyota 3.3 % 4.2 % 3.0 % -22.8 % 8.5 %
Volkswagen Group 0.4 % 1.4 % 0.9 % -69.9 % -52.7 %
Industry 9.0 % 14.3 % 8.6 % -37.2 % 4.1 %

Total Market Share

Manufacturer Sep 2020 Forecast Sep 2019 Actual Aug 2020 Actual
BMW 2.2 % 2.4 % 1.9 %
Daimler 2.0 % 2.5 % 1.8 %
FCA 13.7 % 14.2 % 13.0 %
Ford 14.7 % 13.6 % 14.0 %
GM 16.7 % 16.5 % 16.6 %
Honda 8.7 % 9.0 % 10.3 %
Hyundai 4.7 % 4.2 % 4.5 %
Kia 3.8 % 3.5 % 4.3 %
Nissan 6.0 % 8.0 % 5.6 %
Subaru 4.4 % 4.1 % 4.4 %
Tesla 2.0 % 1.3 % 1.4 %
Toyota 13.5 % 13.3 % 14.4 %
Volkswagen Group 4.0 % 3.8 % 3.8 %

Retail Market Share

Manufacturer Sep 2020 Forecast Sep 2019 Actual Aug 2020 Actual
BMW 2.3 % 2.6 % 2.0 %
Daimler 2.2 % 2.7 % 1.9 %
FCA 12.6 % 12.4 % 12.5 %
Ford 12.8 % 12.3 % 11.9 %
GM 16.2 % 16.0 % 15.5 %
Honda 9.5 % 10.4 % 11.2 %
Hyundai 4.4 % 4.0 % 4.8 %
Kia 4.1 % 3.7 % 4.6 %
Nissan 6.4 % 6.7 % 5.7 %
Subaru 4.7 % 4.6 % 4.7 %
Tesla 2.1 % 1.5 % 1.6 %
Toyota 14.3 % 14.9 % 15.3 %
Volkswagen Group 4.4 % 4.4 % 4.1 %

Average Transaction Price (ATP)

Manufacturer Aug 2020 Forecast Aug 2019 Actual Jul 2020 Actual YOY MOM
BMW $ 57,575 $ 54,440 $ 56,655 5.8 % 1.6 %
Daimler $ 58,441 $ 56,685 $ 59,482 3.1 % -1.8 %
FCA $ 43,011 $ 40,276 $ 41,981 6.8 % 2.5 %
Ford $ 43,469 $ 40,491 $ 42,707 7.4 % 1.8 %
GM $ 42,215 $ 41,577 $ 41,600 1.5 % 1.5 %
Honda $ 30,282 $ 29,214 $ 30,136 3.7 % 0.5 %
Hyundai $ 28,742 $ 25,682 $ 28,244 11.9 % 1.8 %
Kia $ 27,050 $ 25,784 $ 26,181 4.9 % 3.3 %
Nissan $ 28,937 $ 29,440 $ 28,666 -1.7 % 0.9 %
Subaru $ 29,991 $ 29,534 $ 30,184 1.5 % -0.6 %
Toyota $ 33,726 $ 32,919 $ 34,003 2.4 % -0.8 %
Volkswagen Group $ 41,118 $ 39,261 $ 40,995 4.7 % 0.3 %
Industry $ 36,541 $ 35,319 $ 36,385 3.5 % 0.4 %

Incentive Spending

Manufacturer Sep 2020 Forecast Sep 2019 Actual Aug 2020 Actual YOY MOM
BMW $ 4,912 $ 6,019 $ 5,803 -18.4 % -15.4 %
Daimler $ 5,653 $ 5,369 $ 5,675 5.3 % -0.4 %
FCA $ 5,172 $ 4,896 $ 5,060 5.6 % 2.2 %
Ford $ 4,325 $ 4,606 $ 4,298 -6.1 % 0.6 %
GM $ 5,975 $ 5,124 $ 5,679 16.6 % 5.2 %
Honda $ 1,941 $ 2,015 $ 2,618 -3.7 % -25.8 %
Hyundai $ 2,361 $ 2,732 $ 2,494 -13.6 % -5.3 %
Kia $ 3,009 $ 3,541 $ 3,779 -15.0 % -20.4 %
Nissan $ 4,158 $ 3,862 $ 4,816 7.7 % -13.7 %
Subaru $ 1,627 $ 1,454 $ 1,747 11.9 % -6.9 %
Toyota $ 2,666 $ 2,406 $ 2,720 10.8 % -2.0 %
Volkswagen Group $ 4,082 $ 3,422 $ 4,339 19.3 % -5.9 %
Industry $ 4,001 $ 3,802 $ 4,060 5.3 % -1.4 %

Incentives as a Percentage of Average Transaction Price (ATP)

Manufacturer Sep 2020 Forecast
Sep 2019 Actual Aug 2020 Actual YOY MOM
BMW 8.5 % 11.1 % 10.2 % -22.8 % -16.7 %
Daimler 9.7 % 9.5 % 9.5 % 2.1 % 1.4 %
FCA 12.0 % 12.2 % 12.1 % -1.1 % -0.2 %
Ford 9.9 % 11.4 % 10.1 % -12.5 % -1.1 %
GM 14.2 % 12.3 % 13.7 % 14.9 % 3.7 %
Honda 6.4 % 6.9 % 8.7 % -7.1 % -26.2 %
Hyundai 8.2 % 10.6 % 8.8 % -22.8 % -7.0 %
Kia 11.1 % 13.7 % 14.4 % -19.0 % -22.9 %
Nissan 14.4 % 13.1 % 16.8 % 9.5 % -14.5 %
Subaru 5.4 % 4.9 % 5.8 % 10.2 % -6.3 %
Toyota 7.9 % 7.3 % 8.0 % 8.2 % -1.2 %
Volkswagen Group 9.9 % 8.7 % 10.6 % 13.9 % -6.2 %
Industry 11.0 % 10.8 % 11.2 % 1.7 % -1.9 %

Quarterly Tables

Total Unit Sales, Quarterly

Manufacturer Q3 2020 Q3 2019 Q2 2020 YoY % Change YoY % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)
QoQ % Change QoQ % Change (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW 74,048 86,157 53,029 -14.1 % -15.2 % 39.6 % 39.6 %
Daimler 75,847 89,766 58,917 -15.5 % -16.6 % 28.7 % 28.7 %
FCA 496,956 567,380 364,943 -12.4 % -13.5 % 36.2 % 36.2 %
Ford 539,809 576,006 432,317 -6.3 % -7.5 % 24.9 % 24.9 %
GM 627,605 735,642 489,264 -14.7 % -15.8 % 28.3 % 28.3 %
Honda 367,919 429,223 293,502 -14.3 % -15.4 % 25.4 % 25.4 %
Hyundai 175,571 177,953 145,307 -1.3 % -2.6 % 20.8 % 20.8 %
Kia 155,750 158,754 125,392 -1.9 % -3.2 % 24.2 % 24.2 %
Nissan 220,859 327,354 177,328 -32.5 % -33.4 % 24.5 % 24.5 %
Subaru 162,718 185,804 136,518 -12.4 % -13.6 % 19.2 % 19.2 %
Tesla 35,769 42,000 25,500 -14.8 % -15.9 % 40.3 % 40.3 %
Toyota 523,718 627,194 398,029 -16.5 % -17.6 % 31.6 % 31.6 %
Volkswagen Group 146,791 165,826 115,911 -11.5 % -12.6 % 26.6 % 26.6 %
Industry 3,768,194 4,318,068 2,936,014 -12.7 % -13.9 % 28.3 % 28.3 %

Retail Unit Sales, Quarterly

Manufacturer Q3 2020 Q3 2019 Q2 2020 YoY % Change YoY % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)
QoQ % Change QoQ % Change (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW 70,962 79,926 51,760 -11.2 % -12.4 % 37.1 % 37.1 %
Daimler 73,375 83,883 56,995 -12.5 % -13.7 % 28.7 % 28.7 %
FCA 416,702 443,710 322,158 -6.1 % -7.3 % 29.3 % 29.3 %
Ford 425,585 456,665 355,210 -6.8 % -8.0 % 19.8 % 19.8 %
GM 555,453 605,441 438,178 -8.3 % -9.4 % 26.8 % 26.8 %
Honda 366,382 425,956 290,488 -14.0 % -15.1 % 26.1 % 26.1 %
Hyundai 151,770 156,789 141,767 -3.2 % -4.5 % 7.1 % 7.1 %
Kia 152,460 143,077 122,218 6.6 % 5.2 % 24.7 % 24.7 %
Nissan 212,434 245,038 151,149 -13.3 % -14.4 % 40.5 % 40.5 %
Subaru 160,201 181,937 133,709 -11.9 % -13.1 % 19.8 % 19.8 %
Tesla 58,673 42,000 25,248 39.7 % 37.9 % 132.4 % 132.4 %
Toyota 506,583 600,433 386,069 -15.6 % -16.7 % 31.2 % 31.2 %
Volkswagen Group 146,174 159,560 114,221 -8.4 % -9.6 % 28.0 % 28.0 %
Industry 3,429,686 3,766,432 2,702,199 -8.9 % -10.1 % 26.9 % 26.9 %

Total Market Share, Quarterly

Manufacturer Q3 2020 Q3 2019 Q2 2020
BMW 2.0 % 2.0 % 1.8 %
Daimler 2.0 % 2.1 % 2.0 %
FCA 13.2 % 13.1 % 12.4 %
Ford 14.3 % 13.3 % 14.7 %
GM 16.7 % 17.0 % 16.7 %
Honda 9.8 % 9.9 % 10.0 %
Hyundai 4.7 % 4.1 % 4.9 %
Kia 4.1 % 3.7 % 4.3 %
Nissan 5.9 % 7.6 % 6.0 %
Subaru 4.3 % 4.3 % 4.6 %
Tesla 0.9 % 1.0 % 0.9 %
Toyota 13.9 % 14.5 % 13.6 %
Volkswagen Group 3.9 % 3.8 % 3.9 %

Retail Market Share, Quarterly

Manufacturer Q3 2020 Q3 2019 Q2 2020
BMW 2.1 % 2.1 % 1.9 %
Daimler 2.1 % 2.2 % 2.1 %
FCA 12.1 % 11.8 % 11.9 %
Ford 12.4 % 12.1 % 13.1 %
GM 16.2 % 16.1 % 16.2 %
Honda 10.7 % 11.3 % 10.8 %
Hyundai 4.4 % 4.2 % 5.2 %
Kia 4.4 % 3.8 % 4.5 %
Nissan 6.2 % 6.5 % 5.6 %
Subaru 4.7 % 4.8 % 4.9 %
Tesla 1.7 % 1.1 % 0.9 %
Toyota 14.8 % 15.9 % 14.3 %
Volkswagen Group 4.3 % 4.2 % 4.2 %

(Note: This forecast is based solely on ALG’s analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of TrueCar, Inc.’s operations.)

About ALG

Founded in 1964 and headquartered in Santa Monica, California, ALG is an industry authority on automotive residual value projections in both the United States and Canada. By analyzing nearly 2,500 vehicle trims each year to assess residual value, ALG provides auto industry and financial services clients with market industry insights, residual value forecasts, consulting and vehicle portfolio management and risk services. ALG is a wholly-owned subsidiary of TrueCar, Inc., a digital automotive marketplace that provides comprehensive pricing transparency about what other people paid for their cars. ALG has been publishing residual values for all cars, trucks and SUVs in the U.S. for over 55 years and in Canada since 1981.

About TrueCar

TrueCar is a leading automotive digital marketplace that enables car buyers to connect to our nationwide network of Certified Dealers. We are building the industry’s most personalized and efficient car buying experience as we seek to bring more of the purchasing process online. Consumers who visit our marketplace will find a suite of vehicle discovery tools, price ratings and market context on new and used cars — all with a clear view of what’s a great deal. When they are ready, TrueCar will enable them to connect with a local Certified Dealer who shares in our belief that truth, transparency and fairness are the foundation of a great car buying experience. As part of our marketplace, TrueCar powers car-buying programs for over 250 leading brands, including AARP, Sam’s Club, and American Express. Nearly half of all new-car buyers engage with TrueCar powered sites, where they buy smarter and drive happier. TrueCar is headquartered in Santa Monica, California, with offices in Austin, Texas and Boston, Massachusetts.

For more information, please visit www.truecar.com, and follow us on Facebook or Twitter. TrueCar media line: +1-844-469-8442 (US toll-free) | Email: [email protected] 

TrueCar and ALG PR Contact:
Shadee Malekafzali
[email protected]
424.258.8694

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