— Industry Consulting Firm G. Palmer & Associates’ Quarterly Forecast
Assists in Previewing Near-Term Hiring Patterns –
NEWPORT BEACH, CA, July 31, 2024 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Demand for temporary workers in the United States is expected to decrease 9.2% on a seasonally adjusted basis for the 2024 third quarter, when compared with the same period in 2023, according to the Palmer Forecast™, released today.
The Palmer Forecast™ indicated a 6.6% decrease in temporary help for the 2024 second quarter. Actual results as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) came in slightly lower, at a decrease of 7.2%.
The BLS reported a decrease of 88,500 temporary help jobs for the 2024 in second quarter. Temp help jobs decreased by 48,900 in June 2024. To date, 98,000 jobs have been lost in 2024, an average of 13,000 jobs per month. There was a decline of 217,000 temp jobs in 2023, and a decline of 106,000 temp jobs in 2022. Temp help jobs growth in 2021 was strong, with a total gain of 352,000 jobs, and an average of 29,300 jobs added per month, compared with the prior two years, when 201,000 temp jobs were lost in 2020, and 27,000 temp jobs were lost in 2019, according to the BLS. In 2018, more than 99,000 temp help jobs were added over 2017.
A total of 8.1 million open jobs were reported by the BLS as of July 2, 2024. The BLS also reported that non-farm payroll employment increased by 206,000 jobs in June 2024, which was in line with consensus estimates. For the 2024 second quarter, there were 177,000 non-farm jobs added per month. For the 2023 full year, there were 2.96 million non-farm jobs added, an average of 247,000 jobs per month. There were 4.5 million non-farm jobs added in 2022, and 6.4 million jobs added in 2021. To put this in perspective, there were 9.4 million jobs lost in 2020, and 2.1 million total jobs added for 2019. For 2018, a total of 2.6 million new jobs were created, versus 2.1 million new jobs in 2017.
The key categories of jobs created in March are as follows:
- Total Non-Farm: +206,000
- Private Sector: +136,000
- Healthcare: +82,000
- Government: +70,000
- Constructions: +27,000
- Leisure and Hospitality: +7,000
- Retail Trade: -8,500
- Professional and Business Services: -17,000
- Temp Help: -48,900
In June 2024, the labor participation rate was up 10 bps from May 2024, at 62.6%, and it has been in a narrow range of 64.4% to 61.9% since June of 2020. The U3, commonly referred to as the unemployment rate, increased 10 bps to 4.1% in June versus May.
As reported by the BLS, the rate of unemployment for workers with college degrees in June 2024 increased 30 bps to 2.4%, from May 2024. The unemployment rate for workers with less than a high school education was unchanged at 5.9%. The U6 unemployment rate, which tracks those who are unemployed, as well as those who are underemployed and are working part-time for economic reasons, was unchanged at 7.4% in June from May. The U6 rate is considered the rate that most broadly depicts those most affected by the last economic downturn and measures the rate of discouraged workers.
“Further signs of a slow-down are evident in the temp employment market, and until GDP growth resumes to a stronger level and interest rates start declining, growth will be nonexistent, and temp help demand will remain soft,” said Greg Palmer, founder and managing director of G. Palmer & Associates, an Orange County, California-based human capital advisory firm that specializes in workforce solutions. “Another indicator to watch is the temp help penetration rate, which measures temp help as a percentage of total employment. In June 2024, the temp help penetration rate decreased slightly to 1.68% of the total labor market, compared with an all-time high of 2.08%, achieved in February 2022, and a pre-pandemic level of 1.57%, which serves as another indication of temporary jobs lessening.
“The American Staffing Association (ASA) Staffing Index also was down, closing at a value of 88 on July 14, 2024, which was 10.6% below the same period last year,” Palmer added.
About the Palmer Forecast™
The Palmer Forecast™ is based, in part, on BLS and other key indicators. The model was initially developed by the A. Gary Anderson Center for Economic Research at Chapman University and serves as an indicator of economic activity. Companies that employ temporary staff use the forecast as a guide to navigate through fluctuating economic conditions in managing their workforce to meet business demands.
About G. Palmer & Associates
G. Palmer & Associates, founded in 2006, provides advisory services in the human capital sector. Founder Greg Palmer has served on the board of the American Staffing Association and was president and chief executive officer of RemedyTemp, Inc., one of the nation’s largest temporary staffing companies, prior to its sale in June 2006. For more information, visit www.GPalmerandAssociates.com.
Contact:
Roger Pondel/Judy Lin
PondelWilkinson Inc.
310.279.5980
Philip Boronow, Analyst
G. Palmer & Associates
949.201.7296
www.GPalmerandAssociates.com
