Analysts forecast a SAAR of 16.1M in September
Santa Monica, Calif., Sept. 25, 2024 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — The car shopping experts from Edmunds forecast that 3,902,326 new cars and trucks will be sold in the U.S. in the third quarter of 2024, which will be a 2.3% decrease from the third quarter of 2023 and a 4.7% decrease compared to the second quarter of 2024.
“New vehicle sales fell slightly in Q3 as affordability challenges continued to loom large for American car shoppers in the form of historically elevated prices and interest rates,” said Jessica Caldwell, Edmunds’ head of insights. “Part of the reason why prices are staying high is because inventory is hovering at levels where consumer demand is largely being met, and generous blanket incentives are being deemed unnecessary. Although this is an overall healthy place for the industry to be in compared to automakers’ pre-pandemic habits of overproduction and inventory glut, it unfortunately has also limited potential discounts or promotions for shoppers.”
Edmunds analysts note that the Fed’s decision to cut rates at the end of September was a positive step in the right direction, but it does not necessarily guarantee a major uptick in sales through the rest of the year.
“With the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting in early November, we might see a convergence of factors — such as another potential rate cut, the end of the model year and calendar year — that could lead to more favorable car shopping deals in late 2024,” said Caldwell. “But there are a few other uncertainties on the horizon that could also threaten auto sales through the rest of the year, such as potential disruptions from an East Coast port strike and consumer sentiment surrounding the outcome of the presidential election. ”
SALES VOLUME FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER
| SALES VOLUME | 2024 Q3 Forecast | 2023 Q3 Sales | 2024 Q2 Sales | Change from 2023 Q3 | Change from 2024 Q2 |
| GM | 652,457 | 674,544 | 696,493 | -3.3% | -6.3% |
| Toyota | 567,356 | 595,365 | 623,072 | -4.7% | -8.9% |
| Ford | 506,208 | 500,538 | 536,050 | 1.1% | -5.6% |
| Hyundai/Kia | 425,495 | 430,303 | 440,165 | -1.1% | -3.3% |
| Honda | 372,687 | 339,143 | 356,457 | 9.9% | 4.6% |
| Stellantis | 342,110 | 382,195 | 346,382 | -10.5% | -1.2% |
| Nissan | 213,933 | 216,878 | 236,721 | -1.4% | -9.6% |
| Industry | 3,902,326 | 3,995,013 | 4,096,779 | -2.3% | -4.7% |
MARKET SHARE FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER
| Market Share | 2024 Q3 Forecast | 2023 Q3 Sales | 2024 Q2 Sales | Change from 2023 Q3 | Change from 2024 Q2 |
| GM | 16.7% | 16.9% | 17.0% | -1.0% | -1.7% |
| Toyota | 14.5% | 14.9% | 15.2% | -2.4% | -4.4% |
| Ford | 13.0% | 12.5% | 13.1% | 3.5% | -0.9% |
| Hyundai/Kia | 10.9% | 10.8% | 10.7% | 1.2% | 1.5% |
| Honda | 9.6% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 12.5% | 9.8% |
| Stellantis | 8.8% | 9.6% | 8.5% | -8.4% | 3.7% |
| Nissan | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 1.0% | -5.1% |
About Edmunds
Edmunds guides car shoppers online from research to purchase. With in-depth reviews of every new vehicle, shopping tips from an in-house team of experts, plus a wealth of consumer and automotive market insights, Edmunds helps millions of shoppers each month select, price and buy a car with confidence. Regarded as one of America’s best workplaces by Fortune, Great Place to Work and Built In, Edmunds is based in Santa Monica, California. Follow us on TikTok, Twitter, Facebook and Instagram.
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CONTACT: Talia James-Armand Edmunds 310-491-8738 pr@edmunds.com
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