Analysts forecast a SAAR of 16.6M in March
Santa Monica, Calif., March 27, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — The car shopping experts from Edmunds forecast that 3,826,425 new cars and trucks will be sold in the U.S. in the first quarter of 2025, which will be a 1.0% increase from the first quarter of 2024 but a 8.9% decrease compared to the fourth quarter of 2024. This will mark the highest Q1 new vehicle sales tally since 2021.
“Despite ongoing affordability issues and broader economic concerns, the auto industry’s first-quarter performance — especially in March — painted a cautiously optimistic picture,” said Jessica Caldwell, Edmunds’ head of insights. “Inventory levels were healthy for many brands, incentives continued to make a comeback, and there was clear evidence of pent-up demand after the sluggish sales years that followed 2020. Although automotive tariffs — now set to take effect on April 2 — might have pulled ahead some vehicle purchases in Q1, the quarter’s results were largely driven by the strength of the industry’s underlying fundamentals. That said, the road ahead is less certain: These same tariffs will likely create headwinds for the industry in Q2 and beyond.”
As the market shifts in response to the new policy, Edmunds analysts note that both consumers and dealers could be facing a very different landscape in the coming months.
“Looking ahead, the newly announced 25% tariffs on imported vehicles add another layer of difficulty for shoppers already facing high prices and interest rates,” said Ivan Drury, Edmunds’ director of insights. “Shoppers should expect increased competition on dealer lots as news of the tariffs will likely fuel short-term demand from buyers trying to lock in deals before potential price hikes. If you’re planning to buy soon, it’s worth starting your search now. Once tariffs take effect, discounts will be harder to come by and, if spending a bit more today gets you the car you really want, it could save you money in the long run.”
SALES VOLUME FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER
| SALES VOLUME | 2025 Q1 Forecast | 2024 Q1 Sales | 2024 Q4 Sales | Change from 2024 Q1 | Change from 2024 Q4 |
| GM | 665,966 | 595,599 | 755,334 | 11.8% | -11.8% |
| Toyota | 557,361 | 565,516 | 603,545 | -1.4% | -7.7% |
| Ford | 496,628 | 508,092 | 530,681 | -2.3% | -6.4% |
| Hyundai/Kia | 410,483 | 379,714 | 462,611 | 8.1% | -11.3% |
| Honda | 328,785 | 333,825 | 367,362 | -1.5% | -10.5% |
| Stellantis | 282,968 | 334,241 | 322,075 | -15.3% | -12.1% |
| Nissan | 252,119 | 252,735 | 222,484 | -0.2% | 13.3% |
| Industry | 3,826,425 | 3,790,404 | 4,202,424 | 1.0% | -8.9% |
MARKET SHARE FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER
| Market Share | 2025 Q1 Forecast | 2024 Q1 Sales | 2024 Q4 Sales | Change from 2024 Q1 | Change from 2024 Q4 |
| GM | 17.4% | 15.7% | 18.0% | 10.8% | -3.2% |
| Toyota | 14.6% | 14.9% | 14.4% | -2.4% | 1.4% |
| Ford | 13.0% | 13.4% | 12.6% | -3.2% | 2.8% |
| Hyundai/Kia | 10.7% | 10.0% | 11.0% | 7.1% | -2.5% |
| Honda | 8.6% | 8.8% | 8.7% | -2.4% | -1.7% |
| Stellantis | 7.4% | 8.8% | 7.7% | -16.1% | -3.5% |
| Nissan | 6.6% | 6.7% | 5.3% | -1.2% | 24.5% |
About Edmunds
Edmunds guides car shoppers online from research to purchase. With in-depth reviews of every new vehicle, shopping tips from an in-house team of experts, plus a wealth of consumer and automotive market insights, Edmunds helps millions of shoppers each month select, price and buy a car with confidence. Regarded as one of America’s best workplaces by Fortune, Great Place to Work and Built In, Edmunds is based in Santa Monica, California. Follow us on TikTok, Twitter, Facebook and Instagram.
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CONTACT: Talia James-Armand Edmunds 310-491-8738 pr@edmunds.com
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