Analysts forecast a SAAR of 15.6M in June
Santa Monica, Calif., June 27, 2024 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — The car shopping experts from Edmunds forecast that 4,112,804 new cars and trucks will be sold in the U.S. in the second quarter of 2024, which will be a 0.1% increase from the second quarter of 2023 and a 8.5% increase compared to the first quarter of 2024.
“Despite elevated interest rates, new vehicle sales looked ready to pack some punch in Q2 thanks to healthier inventory levels and the revival of summertime incentives. But the CDK cyberattacks have thrown a monkey wrench into sales during the second half of June, affecting what is arguably one of the most lucrative and busiest times of the month and quarter for dealerships,” said Jessica Caldwell, Edmunds’ head of insights. “Although the impact of these attacks will be different from dealer to dealer, this event is another speed bump on the automotive industry’s long road to recovery. The good news is — unlike other black swan events that the industry has contended with in the past — sales shouldn’t be lost or severely deferred, but rather pushed into the third quarter. And in a testament to the resilience of dealerships, affected stores have actively been creating work-arounds much like they did at the start of the pandemic to ensure continuity.”
Edmunds analysts remain optimistic about sales through the rest of the summer and note that, even in light of recent events, consumers shouldn’t feel the need to drastically move up timelines or change how they’ve been shopping for vehicles. As always, they emphasize the need to be diligent about researching and budgeting, especially when financing purchases.
“Unlike previous years when inventory was extremely limited and shoppers had to act right away to get the vehicles they wanted, consumers who don’t immediately require a new vehicle have the luxury of time, so use it to your advantage when shopping around and searching for favorable interest rates,” said Ivan Drury, Edmunds’ director of insights. “But to those with more pressing purchase needs due to an accident or a hefty repair bill: Don’t fret too much about missing out on future deals if you need to buy right away,” said Ivan Drury, Edmunds’ director of insights. “The market has dramatically improved from last year, but we’re still a ways away from any major summer selldown events or 2025 model year vehicles.”
SALES VOLUME FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER
| SALES VOLUME | 2024 Q2 Forecast | 2023 Q2 Sales | 2024 Q1 Sales | Change from 2023 Q2 | Change from 2024 Q1 |
| GM | 712,734 | 692,176 | 595,599 | 3.0% | 19.7% |
| Toyota | 637,732 | 568,965 | 565,516 | 12.1% | 12.8% |
| Ford | 549,602 | 531,662 | 508,092 | 3.4% | 8.2% |
| Hyundai/Kia | 452,695 | 438,536 | 379,714 | 3.2% | 19.2% |
| Honda | 367,715 | 347,026 | 333,825 | 6.0% | 10.2% |
| Stellantis | 346,025 | 437,001 | 334,241 | -20.8% | 3.5% |
| Nissan | 235,390 | 244,353 | 252,735 | -3.7% | -6.9% |
| VW/Audi | 144,840 | 135,071 | 138,625 | 7.2% | 4.5% |
| Industry | 4,112,804 | 4,110,471 | 3,790,405 | 0.1% | 8.5% |
MARKET SHARE FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER
| Market Share | 2024 Q2 Forecast | 2023 Q2 Sales | 2024 Q1 Sales | Change from 2023 Q2 | Change from 2024 Q1 |
| GM | 17.3% | 16.8% | 15.7% | 2.9% | 10.3% |
| Toyota | 15.5% | 13.8% | 14.9% | 12.0% | 3.9% |
| Ford | 13.4% | 12.9% | 13.4% | 3.3% | -0.3% |
| Hyundai/Kia | 11.0% | 10.7% | 10.0% | 3.2% | 9.9% |
| Honda | 8.9% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 5.9% | 1.5% |
| Stellantis | 8.4% | 10.6% | 8.8% | -20.9% | -4.6% |
| Nissan | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.7% | -3.7% | -14.2% |
| VW/Audi | 3.5% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 7.2% | -3.7% |
About Edmunds
Edmunds guides car shoppers online from research to purchase. With in-depth reviews of every new vehicle, shopping tips from an in-house team of experts, plus a wealth of consumer and automotive market insights, Edmunds helps millions of shoppers each month select, price and buy a car with confidence. Regarded as one of America’s best workplaces by Fortune, Great Place to Work and Built In, Edmunds is based in Santa Monica, California. Follow us on TikTok, Twitter, Facebook and Instagram.
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CONTACT: Talia James-Armand Edmunds 310-491-8738 pr@edmunds.com
